In one of the most striking electoral swings in recent memory, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and the Labor Party have surged ahead in the polls, positioning themselves to potentially reclaim government with a strong majority, according to new data released ahead of early voting.
The latest figures from Redbridge Group and Accent Research, tracking the third week of the federal election campaign, show Labor leading 54.5 per cent to 45.5 per cent on a two-party preferred basis — a dramatic reversal from February, when the Coalition held the upper hand at 52 per cent.
The Coalition’s primary vote has plummeted by 9 per cent nationally, with an even more severe 11 per cent drop in Victoria, traditionally a battleground state. Analysts say this sharp fall could limit the Liberal-National Coalition to gaining just a single seat in the state.
“This is one of the most significant electoral shifts in living memory,” said Redbridge director Kos Samaras. “Victoria has been the epicentre of this collapse.”
Out of the 1,000 voters surveyed, 36 per cent identified Labor as having the best election promises, compared to just 26 per cent for the Coalition. The trend is a welcome sign for the Prime Minister, who campaigned Friday alongside fiancée Jodie Haydon and pet dog Toto.
With early voting due to open soon and the Easter long weekend limiting campaign opportunities, week three could prove decisive for both major parties.
Opposition Leader Peter Dutton, meanwhile, has rejected the poll’s findings, claiming a disconnect between published figures and on-ground feedback.
“I think there is a disparity in some of the published polls to what we are seeing,” Mr Dutton said. “Most people are more concerned about the cost-of-living crisis, which Labor is failing to address.”
Mr Dutton also suggested that many voters were yet to firmly decide and that his party remained “enthused” by efforts in key marginal seats.
Mr Dutton adopted a lighter tone during his Saturday campaign stop at the Sydney Royal Easter Show, where he joked with families, posed for selfies, and even admired an alpaca’s hair.
“That’s a beautiful Afro. I’m jealous,” he quipped, drawing laughter as he tapped his own bald head.
The show, located in the marginal Labor-held seat of Reid (5.2% margin), gave Mr Dutton an opportunity to connect with rural voters and livestock producers. He listened to dairy farmers like Julie Moore from Dorrigo express concerns about milk prices, acknowledging, “That’s a very good point.”
Labor’s latest policy announcement to enshrine penalty rates in workplace legislation has also stirred debate. The proposal would protect Sunday and holiday pay for over 3 million award workers in sectors such as retail, hospitality, pharmacy, and fast food.
Workplace Relations Minister Murray Watt said the legislation would prevent further erosion of workers’ incomes:
“We will always stand with workers to protect their wages so that we can help them deal with the pressures of today and get ahead in the future.”
Mr Dutton, however, dismissed the move as a “stunt,” arguing that industrial relations should remain the domain of the Fair Work Commission.
“Let’s have a mature debate,” he said. “This election is about whether you can afford three more years of Labor. I don’t think Australians can.”
