In a stunning twist ahead of the federal election, a new poll commissioned by the Queensland Conservation Council suggests Opposition Leader Peter Dutton is in serious danger of losing his seat of Dickson, with Labor’s Ali France pulling ahead.
The UComms poll, based on a sample of 854 local voters, puts France ahead of Dutton on a 52% to 48% two-party preferred basis. Dutton holds the seat by a razor-thin margin of 1.7%, having won by just 3,363 votes in the 2022 election.
A major factor behind the swing appears to be Dutton’s nuclear energy policy, with 46.7% of voters saying they are now less likely to vote for him because of it.
Queensland Conservation Council Director Dave Copeman said:
“Peter Dutton’s plan to put toxic, expensive nuclear reactors in Australian communities has backfired badly. This policy could cost him his own seat.”
He added that Dutton’s stance on nuclear energy is becoming a major liability, not only for him but for the Liberal Party nationwide.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has targeted Dickson since day one of the campaign, calling it a “winnable seat” and even making it his first campaign stop after the election was called in March.
Labor is now reportedly spending $130,000 on the ground in Dickson to boost Ali France’s chances. In an email to voters, Labor’s National Secretary Paul Erickson criticized Dutton’s absence during Cyclone Alfred, when he traveled to Sydney for a fundraiser:
“It’s not just that Peter Dutton is absent. People are deeply concerned about the cuts he’ll make to fund his $600 billion nuclear plan. Our message is shifting votes.”
Erickson called on supporters to dig deeper to “dump Dutton from Dickson once and for all.”
The race in Dickson has become even more unpredictable with Independent candidate Ellie Smith entering the fray. Smith, running a community-backed campaign, accused Dutton of ignoring his electorate:
“He’s been the MP for 24 years, but he’s completely disconnected now. People noticed when he fled to Sydney during the cyclone. But that’s just part of a pattern.”
Smith claims momentum is shifting in her favor and that Dutton is spending $40,000 on negative attack ads and billboards targeting her campaign:
“He even removed his own image from billboards just to run an attack on me. This kind of negative politics is exactly why people are turning away from the major parties.”
While the Liberal Party dismisses the poll results, insisting their internal numbers show Dutton is safe, the combination of a rising Labor challenger, a strong Independent, and community backlash over nuclear policy paints a worrying picture for the Liberal leader.
If Dutton loses his seat, it would be a historic political upset, potentially reshaping the national political landscape.
